Scottish fishing leaders have warned of a punishing year ahead for Shetland and the wider Scottish industry after a 44% cut to cod quotas agreed in UK, EU and Norwegian talks. The Shetland Fishermen’s Association estimates the reduction will wipe more than £16 million from the islands’ economy in 2026, with family-owned boats and shareholder crews in one of Scotland’s most fishing-dependent communities under particular strain.
Daniel Lawson, SFA executive officer, said: “UK and Scottish Government negotiators have worked hard to support sustainable fishing opportunities, and so spare the fleet – and our wider community – from the worst-case economic shocks. However, there is no doubt that 2026 will be a hard year for fishing crews across all fleet sectors.
“Our internal analysis – shared with governments in advance of negotiations – estimates that the 44% cod cut alone will mean losses of £16m+ for Shetland’s local economy next year. Numbers in government spreadsheets have real life consequences. For a population of only 23,000 folk, that economic impact will be felt strongest in communities such as Shetland – with family-owned vessels and shareholder crews.
“The irresponsible assumptions and unsupported guesswork which form the basis of this cod cut reveal the desperate need for investment in evidence-led fisheries science. Fishermen whose livelihoods depend on it deserve serious analysis of data, not arbitrary computer modelling which consistently fails to reflect what fishing crews see every day at sea.”
SFA chairman James Anderson added: “Fishermen will await the outcome of other negotiations before taking full stock for the year ahead. With quota cuts expected across our most valuable whitefish and pelagic stocks, our industry will once again be forced to step up and show its resilience. Governments must now consider what support they can offer: because no business can survive on resilience alone.
“While Shetland fish stocks will bounce back, as they always have, we must all take care to ensure that a locally owned fishing fleet is still here to help Shetlanders benefit from that rich resource. The alternative – extractive, external fleets profiting from our fish stocks while Shetlanders watch from the shore – would be a basic injustice and an unforgivable travesty.”
Elspeth Macdonald, chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, said the outcome of the talks on quotas will make for a difficult 2026 for the fleet, but could have been significantly worse.
She said: “With ICES having recommended a zero total allowable catch (TAC) for Northern shelf cod, the Scottish whitefish fleet had been contemplating having to tie up for much of the year.
“That’s because cod is such a major component of the mixed fishery that these boats work at every year. We said when ICES published their advice in the autumn that there are problems with the how their scientific advice is formulated, and there is work underway seeking to address that. Meantime however, we are relieved that negotiators have found a way forward in setting a TAC and agreeing a series of measures to protect the stock.
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“Thanks to the work done by the Scottish and UK government negotiators, the outcome on cod, while a significant reduction from this year’s TAC that will inevitably have an impact on the sector, is less damaging than anticipated, with a balance struck between the need to allow the stock to recover, particularly in the southern North Sea, and the sustainability of the fleet.”
Ms Macdonald added that she was glad the long-running negotiations on the single TAC on North Sea herring had finally been resolved, with the UK’s share protected. The herring TAC is reduced for 2026, but the negotiators were able to agree a TAC higher than the ICES advice while maintaining the stock at a sustainable level.
