Food prices could come under renewed pressure into 2027 as disruption to global supplies combines with rising energy, fuel and production costs, industry experts have warned.
A Reuters analysis found that food inflation is expected to intensify towards the end of 2026 and persist into next year.
Shipping disruption, higher freight charges, rising fuel and fertiliser costs and weather-related damage linked to El Niño are placing pressure on global cereal supplies. Conflicts affecting the Black Sea, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have also disrupted key trade routes and increased the cost of moving agricultural goods.
Prices for staples including rice, wheat, sugar and cooking oil have already risen in a number of markets. The effects are expected to be most severe in lower and middle-income countries, where food accounts for a greater proportion of household spending.
In the UK, official figures show that food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose by 1.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, unchanged from August. Prices fell by 0.2% on a monthly basis.
However, the Food and Drink Federation has warned that mounting costs faced by manufacturers are likely to feed through to consumers during 2027.
Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the Food and Drink Federation, said: “There’s no doubt that the cost of producing food in the UK is rising. On top of mounting regulatory pressures, input costs are rising across the board. Diesel prices are up two fifths and petrol around a third, while gas prices have more than doubled since February and the UK’s industrial electricity prices remain the highest in Europe. Packaging and ingredient costs are also rising. We expect that these increases will start to appear in consumer prices into next year.
“As manufacturers and retailers strive to keep prices as low as possible for consumers, especially in the lead up to Christmas, the pressure is building for the sector, undermining investment in the long-term resilience of the UK food system.
“Government should be doing what it can now to take the heat out of any later inflationary period and safeguard the UK’s food and drink sector. To start, with the Budget fast approaching, they should prioritise extending targeted energy relief to the food and drink sector.
“Food and drink has a direct impact on household budgets, so offering our sector the same support that is enjoyed by other manufacturing sectors would show a clear commitment to tackling the cost of living.”
FDF figures show that diesel prices have increased by 41% and petrol by 32% since February, while UK gas futures for December delivery have risen by 166% over the same period.
The organisation also said electricity prices for most UK producers remain around twice the European average, approximately three times those faced by businesses in France and twice the level in Spain.
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Price movements continue to vary considerably across food categories. According to the FDF’s analysis, fish prices rose by 11.4% in the year to September, while frozen seafood increased by 10%. Preserved fruit rose by 6.2%.
Prices fell across 16 of the 49 categories measured, including butter, pizza, fruit and vegetable juices and cheese.
The federation is calling for targeted energy support to be extended to food and drink manufacturers in the forthcoming Budget, arguing that reducing pressure on producers could help limit future increases for households and support investment in the resilience of the UK food supply chain.
