Proposed changes to how “healthy” food is defined in the UK could have far-reaching consequences for both shoppers and the brands behind some of the nation’s most familiar products, according to new research from Oxford Economics.
The study, which analysed data from major UK food and drink manufacturers, suggests that updates to the government’s Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM) could dramatically increase costs for businesses while also limiting the range of products available to consumers.
At the heart of the issue is how products are classified as “healthy” or “less healthy” a distinction that determines whether they can be advertised or promoted in shops.
Oxford Economics estimates that the proposed changes could cost manufacturers an average of £2,812 per product to implement, compared to just £53 suggested in the government’s own assessment. The difference reflects the reality of reformulating recipes, updating packaging, reworking internal systems and reassessing entire product ranges.
There is also a risk that millions already invested in creating healthier options could be lost. On average, manufacturers expect to write off around £10 million each in reformulation efforts, as some products designed to meet current standards may no longer qualify under the new rules.
What It Could Mean for Shoppers
For consumers, the changes may be felt less in headlines and more on supermarket shelves.
The research suggests that up to 40% more products could fall under restrictions, including items often seen as better-for-you choices such as high-fibre cereals, fruit yoghurts, and lower sugar or salt alternatives.
As a result, manufacturers anticipate delisting more than one in ten products, potentially reducing the availability of everyday “swap” options that help shoppers make small, healthier choices.
This could be significant. Separate research has shown that modest changes like switching to lower sugar or lower salt alternatives can meaningfully reduce calorie intake over time.
The findings come at a time when food and drink producers are already navigating rising costs and economic uncertainty. With food inflation forecast to reach up to 10% by the end of 2026, there are growing concerns that additional regulatory costs may ultimately feed through to prices at the till.
Despite this, current government assumptions suggest businesses will absorb the costs—something industry figures say is increasingly unrealistic.
Kate Halliwell, Chief Scientific Officer at the Food and Drink Federation, said the proposals risk having unintended consequences: “There are early signs that existing rules are already influencing what people buy. Introducing further changes now could add pressure on businesses and reduce access to products that support healthier diets.”
While the aim of the proposed changes is to improve public health, the Oxford Economics report highlights uncertainty around how effective they will be in practice.
Estimates for how much purchasing behaviour might change vary widely, suggesting that the real-world impact on diets remains unclear.
At the same time, manufacturers point to significant progress already made, with notable reductions in sugar, salt and calories across many product ranges in recent years.
What Happens Next
With the latest wave of advertising and promotion restrictions only coming into force in early 2026, industry leaders are urging government to pause and assess their impact before introducing further changes.
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An alternative approach being proposed is greater transparency, specifically, mandatory reporting on healthier food sales across the sector, giving a clearer picture of how diets are evolving and where further improvements can be made.
For now, the debate highlights a delicate balance: how to encourage healthier eating without narrowing choice or placing additional strain on an already pressured food system.
